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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than Timezone in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Team Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test team being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued performing. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a far greater shift with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that train approaching, rolling round the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.